At the pace we’re going... it’s possible: Sales of cow’s milk are down 6% whereas sales of plant-based milks are up 9% to $1.6 billion. Non-dairy milks now make up 13% of total milk sales in the US.
Plant-based milks have a lot going for them: They’re environmentally friendly, they’re ethically neutral, they appeal to a range of diets including vegan, vegetarian, and lactose intolerant, and they possess novel taste profiles, flavors, and textures. Besides these positive attributes, macro food and beverage trends are also pushing the category forward. Excitement over personalized nutrition services, which test a swab of saliva or droplet of blood to gain insight into how one’s genetic makeup influences their body’s reaction to specific foods and nutrients, will lead to greater awareness of individual cases of lactose intolerance or lactose insensitivity and steer more people away from conventional dairy products. Studies show that as much as 65% of the world’s population may lose the ability to digest lactose after infancy. Without the lactase enzyme, drinking a glass of milk becomes unpleasant (some may say traumatizing), leading to debilitating side effects like abdominal pain, bloating, nausea, and diarrhea.
The dairy industry is also suffering from a PR issue. How many sets of chafed cow nipples do you have to see before you begin to start asking questions?
Cows, like humans, only produce milk after they give birth. Typically, dairy cows are artificially inseminated within three months of giving birth. Although the process may not adversely affect the cows, even the appearance of the practice can look unappealing. After about three years of milk product, the cows are typically culled and their meat used for beef. Animal welfare is a permanent point of contention amongst consumers (especially Millennials and Gen Z), and it seems that milk sales are always one Netflix documentary away from… udder collapse. And just consider this: It only takes one generation to wean a child off cow’s milk. If you didn’t grow up drinking a glass of the white stuff, it’s distinct scent, taste, and origin may be off-putting.
Plant-based milks, on the other hand, are fun and funky — melding a culture of hippie-burlap origin with the modern technical cache of a Silicon Valley start-up. The category is fast moving and dynamic, innovating with a fearlessness reserved for burgeoning industries. Brands and companies are constantly toying with revolutionary flavors and combinations. When consumers are bored with one option (I’m looking at you soy milk), there’s often a new nut or seed milk ready to take its place whether it’s hemp, quinoa, oat, flax, peanut, or sesame.
Plant-based milks are only going to gain in popularity. Companies will dedicate more R&D dollars to developing non-dairy alternatives that have similar functionality and nutritional content as cow’s milk, and this reallocation of resources will continue to chip away at dairy sales. The dairy industry must find a way to transform milk into value-added products that align more succinctly with changing consumer demands and expectations. Maybe more aged cheeses, high-fat butters, or whey protein powders are in our future..